Although this allegory does not encompass all of the complexities of the nuclear arms race; even though it does not even capture its essence, as I will argue, nonetheless it insistently suggests itself as I study the phenomena of nuclear escalation, of which Star Wars is the most recent and unavoidably controversial stage.

It is often asked whether Star Wars will "work", a question which cannot be answered without first defining a mission. A series of increasingly modest and decreasingly unfeasible missions has been proposed, ranging from the fantasy "peace shield" to the seemingly inexplicable and contradictory strategy of "defended 1st strike". The feasibility of these missions is assessed in the appended article "Defended 1st Strike Weapons" reprinted from the book The Role of Scientists in Preventing an Arms Race in Outer Space.

In order to understand the complex phenomena of nuclear escalation by which we are confronted, in order to guide our efforts to make them more effective, it is necessary to try to build models and theories which can capture the essence of the circumstances.

Theory

The next task is to attempt to understand the dynamics of nuclear escalation. We will approach the topic scientifically, as typically is the case in seeking understanding of phenomena in the world. Comparative critical analysis of categories of theories competing to explain the phenomena of nuclear escalation is conducted by asking critical questions (appended) of the theories in order to evaluate their explanatory power and hence their relative validity. I have categorized the theories into four main classifications, viz., a) National Security Theories, b) Psychological Theories, c) Vested Interest and "Superpower Syndrome" Theories, d) Class Conflict Theories. Many of the critical questions are inspired by the theories themselves. The suggested questions do not preempt the field. As in the process of scientific theory validation there is considerable latitude in methodology and evaluation. You may propose your own critical questions and perform your own evaluation. You may try to "retrodict" or to "predict" things which you do not already know. For example, what are the proclaimed USSR and US government policies governing "1st use" of nuclear weapons? or concerning a nuclear test ban? or on nuclear free zones? or on the "freeze"? etc. A comparison of the "predicted" expectations with reality can provide a test of the theory and of your own theoretical understanding.

In conclusion my "Modest Plan to Save the (Capitalist) World" and a brief for successful imperialism will be unveiled.

Critical Questions

1. Why has U.S. national security been sacrificed to what may be called "nuclear military ambition"? (National Security)

2. Why has "nuclear insanity" reached such egregious, endemic proportions only in the U.S.? (Psychological)

3. Why are there such striking asymmetries between supposedly homologous states in; a) use, b) threats, c) policies (eg., first use and "graduated response"), d) strategies (eg., first strike), e) deployments (eg., "launch 'em or lose 'em" modes), f) weapon characteristics (eg., accuracy), g) arms control and disarmament positions, h) escalation/response patterns, and even in i) terminology (eg., the MX "Peacemaker")? (Superpower Syndrome)

4. What originally entrenched the vested interests and institutions? (Vested Interest)

5. Lacking traditional reasons for dispute, why is the USSR the enemy? (National Security)

6. Since the USSR is targetted, why have the majority of explicit threats of nuclear attack been directed at non-nuclear Third World countries? (Superpower Syndrome)

7. Why does the USSR have a large nuclear arsenal with overkill? (Class Conflict)

8. Why does China only have a modest nuclear arsenal and why is not China emphasized as a target? (Class Conflict)

Glossary

1st strike - An attack upon an adversary's nuclear retaliatory weaponry which can reduce the 2nd strike response to "tolerable proportions" which are "not inconsistent with U.S. survival and recovery". (Perhaps 20-100 million U.S. casualties? -- Colin Gray) 1st strike capability eliminates nuclear deterrence.

1st use - A nuclear attack upon an adversary (which may or may not possess nuclear weapons) without attempting to destroy retaliatory nuclear capability. Eg. USSR forces could be attacked in the Persian Gulf, or Nicaragua could be bombed.

Countervalue strategy - Envisions a presumably retaliatory strike against what an adversary values, cities and industry, in order to maintain nuclear deterrence -- the most obvious type of "2nd strike".

Counterforce strategy - Envisions an attack against military targets. If it is the adversary's nuclear retaliatory capability (deterrent capability) which is targetted, then counterforce becomes 1st strike.

C3I or 3CI - Control, command, communications, and intelligence systems.

SALT - Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (Treaty).

Forward-deployed strategic weapons - Weapons of less than intercontinental range ("theater" or "intermediate-range") which can directly strike an adversary, not just allies or forces outside its national boundaries. Currently the "Euromissiles", Pershing IIs and GLCMs (below) are the only examples.

ICBM - Intercontinental ballistic missile -- a delivery vehicle which can be launched from silos and mobile land-based and airborne platforms. The nose cone of this multistage rocket can contain one bomb (as in the Minuteman I or II ICBMs) or many bombs (as in the Minuteman III MIRVed ICBM).

SLBM - Submarine-launched ballistic missile.

Cruise Missile - A delivery vehicle supported by wings and propelled by jet or rocket engines, which flies like an airplane. Cruise missiles are continuously guided; however, self-guided and remotely-guided long-range cruise missiles are now being developed which can be launched from an aircraft (ALCM), or a submarine (SLCM), or from the ground (GLCM).

CEP - Circular error probability -- a measure of the accuracy of warhead delivery. If a missile is said to have a CEP of a half mile, this means that it is most probable that half of the missiles launched will land within a half mile of their targets.

MRV - Multiple reentry vehicle -- a cluster of warheads are placed on top of an ICBM which follow a free fall trajectory out of the nose cone (or the reentry vehicle, RV): MRV warheads are not individually aimed as are the MIRVed warheads.

Minuteman III - The MM III is a land-based ICBM with MIRVed warheads; deployed in underground hardened silos in Montana, North and South Dakota, Wyoming and Missouri.

MX - A new, land-based, multiple warhead, highly accurate and vulnerable ICBM in the U.S. government's nuclear arsenal.

Trident II - A proposed super-quiet, highly maneuverable sub designed to fire very long-range missiles. The Trident sub will carry 24 MIRVed missiles (4,000 to 6,000 nm range), each one tipped with 17 highly accurate warheads.

Pershing IIs - A forward-deployed, highly accurate, multiple warhead strategic ballistic missiles designed to attack C3I systems. "peace shield" to the seemingly inexplicable and contradictory strategy of "defended 1st strike" strategy.