©James Santucci

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Kashmir: A Potential for a World War

 

James A. Santucci

Department of Comparative Religion

California State University

Fullerton, CA 92834-6868

 

 

 

Background Information

 

            Kashmir is held by 3 countries: India, Pakistan, and China.  The population figures (1981) and background information are as follows:

 

            Indian-held areas:

 

                        Kashmir                                  6,049 sq. mi.         3,135,000 pop

                        Jammu                                   9,997                2,718,000

                        Ladakh                               15,597                     134,000

 

            Total:                                                 31,643                          5,987,000

                                                                                                           

 

            Pakistani-held areas:

 

              Azad Kashmir                                  4,871 sq. mi.         1,983,000 pop

              Northern areas                            32,792                    575,000

 

            Total:                                             37,663                  2,558,000

 

            Chinese-held areas:

 

                        Aksai Chin                             14,500   (no permanent habitation)

                        Shaksgam                               2,000    ( ")

 

            Total                                                   16,500

 

Grand Total                                      85,806            8,545,000     

 

Religion

            The predominant religion of Kashmir is Islam.  The following is a breakdown of the districts of Kashmir.

 

            Indian controlled Kashmir: 64% Muslim

            Kashmir Valley:  95%

            Poonch Rajori & Doda: 65%

            Jammu, Kathua, Udhampur: 10%

            Leh District: 15%)

            Kargil District: 78%

            Pakistan controlled Kashmir: 100%

            Azad Kashmir: 100%

            Gilgit, Baltishan: 100%

            Kashmiris in Pakistan: 100%

            Kashmiris in outside world: 100%

 

 

The Conflict

 

            The Status of the State of Jammu and Kashmir has been a concern since independence was granted to India in August 1947.  Under the partition plane provided by the Indian Independence Act of 1947, Kashmir was free to accede to India or Pakistan.  Its accession to India became a matter of dispute between the two countries and so fighting broke out later that year.

 

            The accession took place under trying circumstances. What is called the First Indo-Pakistani Conflict began in 1947, just weeks after the Partition of India, over the issue of Kashmir.  The Maharaja of Kashmir, Hari Singh, a Hindu who probably wished to remain independent, was forced to make the difficult decision of aligning with India in order to request its military support due to an internal rebellion aided by Pakistani tribesmen.  Indian forces subsequently intervened and were successful in preventing the capture of Srinagar by the rebels but could not force the Pakistanis out.  The conflict ended in stalemate in 1949 and the military "line of control" (LOC) has become the de facto boundary ever since. 

 

            A number of actions were taken to keep the conflict from getting any worse than it was.  On Jan. 6, 1948, India's complaint charging Pakistan with aggression in Kashmir, was taken up in the Security Council. A deadlock resulted by the 20th, so the Security Council decided to set up a three member UN Commission for investigation and mediation in the Kashmir dispute.

 

            On May 6, India formally rejected the Security Council's plan for UN supervision over a plebiscite in Kashmir.  On July 10 the UN Kashmir Commission asked the Secretary-General of the UN to send military observers in Kashmir.  On the 13th, the Commission proposed a cease-fire agreement between India and Pakistan.  This took affect on Jan. 1, 1949.

 

            On July 17, 1949, the Constituent Assembly of India adopted Article 370 of the Constitution—making special provisions for Jammu and Kashmir.

 

            The Article is herein quoted:

 

 

Part XXI

 

Temporary, transitional and special provisions. 370. Temporary provisions with respect to the State of Jammu and Kashmir.-

 

(1) Notwithstanding anything in this Constitution,-

 

(a) the provisions of article 238 shall not apply in relation to the State of Jammu and Kashmir;

 

(b) the power of Parliament to make laws for the said State shall be limited to-

 

(i) those matters in the Union List and the Concurrent List which, in consultation with the Government of the State, are declared by the President to correspond to matters specified in the Instrument of Accession governing the accession of the State to the Dominion of India as the matters with respect to which the Dominion Legislature may make laws for that State; and

 

(ii) such other matters in the said Lists as, with the concurrence of the Government of the State, the President may by order specify.

 

Explanation.-For the purposes of this article, the Government of the State means the person for the time being recognised by the President as the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir acting on the advice of the Council of Ministers for the time being in office under the Maharaja's Proclamation dated the fifth day of March, 1948;

 

(c) the provisions of article 1 and of this article shall apply in relation to that State;

 

(d) such of the other provisions of this Constitution shall apply in relation to that State subject to such exceptions and modifications as the President may by order _358 specify:

 

Provided that no such order which relates to the matters specified in the Instrument of Accession of the State referred to in paragraph (i) of sub-clause (b) shall be issued except in consultation with the Government of the State:

 

Provided further that no such order, which relates to matters other than those referred to in the last preceding proviso shall be issued except with the concurrence of that Government.

 

(2) If the concurrence of the Government of the State referred to in paragraph (ii) of sub-clause (b) of clause (1) or in the second proviso to sub-clause (d) of that clause be given before the Constituent Assembly for the purpose of framing the Constitution of the State is convened, it shall be placed before such Assembly for such decision as it may take thereon.

 

(3) Notwithstanding anything in the foregoing provisions of this article, the President may, by public notification, declare that this article shall cease to be operative or shall be operative only with such exceptions and modifications and from such date as he may specify:

 

Provided that the recommendation of the Constituent Assembly of the State referred to in clause (2) shall be necessary before the President issues such a notification.

 

This Article is virtually an amendment of the earlier provisions of the Constitution.  Only Articles 1[1] and 370 directly apply to Jammu and Kashmir.  Art. 370 is a temporary and transitional provision exempting Kashmir from the operation of the now repealed Art. 238 and certain other provisions of the Constitution specified by the President, but not from the operation of Art. 1.

            Throughout the years, there have been public declarations that Kashmir was legally a part of India.  The Prime Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Bakshi Ghulam Mohammed, sworn in on August 9, 1953, stated officially (Jan. 23, 1954) that this was so.  This followed by many years former Prime Minister Sheikh Abdullah's unequivocal declaration in June 1948 that "We the people of Jammu and Kashmir, have thrown our lot with Indian people not in the heat of passion or a moment of despair, but by a deliberate choice.  The union of our people has been fused by the community of ideals and common sufferings in the cause of freedom."

 

The 1962 War

 

Conflict occurred between India and the People's Republic of China in 1962.  Tensions between the 2 countries over their disputed border had been building for 3 years.  The Chinese initiated the  conflict, striking the northeastern border of India as a cover for the seizure of territory in Ladakh where, unbeknownst to the Indians, the Chinese had built a strategic highway, linking the provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang. China's offensive was initiated on October 20, 1962.  The Chinese forces quickly ejected the ill-prepared Indian forces at the Karakoram Pass and from posts near Pangong Lake.  The outcome has been the continued occupation of the area known as Aksai Chin and Shaksgam.

 

The Kargil Crisis

 

On April 1, 1999 the beginnings of a new and dangerous conflict took place.  Pakistani intruders entered the Kargil-Dras sector, thus initiating a limited war known as the "Kargil conflict."  Why this attack took place is uncertain.  Perhaps it was to avenge Pakistan's defeat in the 1971 war with India.[2]   Or perhaps it was Pakistan's intent to energize its flagging insurgency in the Kashmir valley; or, more ominously, the attack was an effort to exploit its newly confirmed nuclear capabilities to achieve those lasting political changes in Kashmir that has so far eluded Pakistan.

What was so important in the Kargil crisis was that even the presence of nuclear weapons could not dampen security competition between the two nations.  The Rand Report[3] provides a telling observation:  "It remains an empirical question whether or not the Kargil war represents a foretaste of future episodes of attempted nuclear coercion if India and Pakistan believe that their nuclear capabilities provide them the immunity required to prosecute a range of military operations short of all-out war. Whether one side or both will act upon this belief depends in part on the particular conclusions and lessons they drew from the Kargil conflict."  The observations that follow are important.

 

            1.  Pakistan has realized that Kargil-like operations are not legitimate but does allow low intensity conflict (LIC) as a legitimate tool for its objectives.

 

            2.  Kargil again demonstrated Pakistan's failure of its strategy.  It failed to recognize that the international community would not support its position.

 

            3.  Both the covert operation of Pakistan and the rapidity and degree of India's counter-response were unprecedented in the history of the "violent peace" in Kashmir.

 

            4.  The Kargil crisis pose real concerns about the possibility of the conflict widening to conventional war and subsequently escalating to nuclear war.

 

The lessons learned by India were as follows:

 

            1.  India confirmed its belief that Pakistan is a reckless and untrustworthy state.  The Pakistani military were seen as a substantial cause of the problems in India-Pakistan relations.

 

            2.  Kargil caused India to reconsider whether to engage Pakistan diplomatically on the Kashmir issue.  

 

            3.  Kargil strengthened the perception that India's intelligence infrastructure has endemic deficiencies.  This has spurred India to improve its intelligence capabilities.

 

            4.  India realized that international attention to Kashmir is not altogether undesirable, particularly when it focuses on Pakistani misadventures. India will, however resist international involvement over Kashmir.

 

            5.  Kargil was India's first televised war.

 

For Pakistan, violence in various forms remains a legitimate means to achieve its political objectives in Kashmir.  Kargil was a failure mainly because it used Pakistani troops, causing condemnation from the international community.  However, it is open to encouraging jihadi forces (either Pakistan-based "guest militants" or indigenous Kashmiri groups) to extend its operation.

 

            The failure of the Pakistani aggression led to the house arrest of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on October 12, 1999.  Army chief General Pervez Musharraf replaced him as Pakistan's top administrative officer.

 

Recent Events

 

            On Dec. 13, 2001, an attack on the Parliament House was conducted by 5 terrorists.  Six Security personnel were killed and 16 wounded.  This raised further anxiety on the terrorist activity allowed to flourish on Pakistani soil.  This led to President Pervez Musharraf to ban two organizations:  the Lashkar-e-Tayiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, two terrorist organizations involved in the attack on the Parliament.  This and the allowance of terrorist organizations to operate both within the Pakistani and Kashmiri borders have caused concern in India.  Over 40 organizations operate in Kashmir alone, including the Allah Tigers, Zia Tigers, Kashmir Freedom Army Guerilla Commando, Hizbullah, Kashmir Freedom Movement, Kashmir Liberation Front, Islamic Students League, Kashmir Students Force, the Peoples Front, and Jinnah Liberation Tiger.

            By the summer of 2002, the conflict between Pakistan and India became untenable due to the perceived refusal of Pakistan to stop cross border terrorists from entering Kashmiri territory.  Over 800,000 troops were amassed along the border bringing the two nations closer to nuclear war than at any time since the Cuba missile crisis.  Indeed, George Tenet, the Dir. of the C.I.A., suggested a fourth Indo-Pakistani War that would in all likelihood go nuclear. 

            What will happen in the future is anybody's guess.  Serious negotiations are the minimum requirement but due to the tenuous hold on Pakistan by the military and the strength of Islamic extremists, there is a limit that the government is willing to do to alleviate the situation without itself being in danger of being overthrown.  Without a spirit of compromise on at least one side, there can be no permanent solution.  By the very nature of Islamic extremism, only until it can itself be defused and compromised by moderating forces can there be any hope for lasting peace.

 

                 


[1] Article 1 reads as follows:

 

THE UNION AND ITS TERRITORY

1. Name and territory of the Union.-

(1) India, that is Bharat, shall be a Union of States.        

_3(2)  The  States and the territories thereof shall be as specified in the First Schedule.]        

(3) The territory of India shall comprise-        

(a) the territories of the States;        

_4(b) the Union territories specified in the First Schedule; and        

[c) such other territories as may be acquired.

 

[2] This is the Third Indo-Pakistani Conflict, when India intervened militarily in East Pakistan as West Pakistan attempted to crush a bid for Bangladeshi independence.  India's intervention proved successful.  Bangladesh was the result of this action.

 

[3] Limited Conflict Under the Nuclear Umbrella by Ashley J. Tellis, et. al.,  http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1450.